![]() Whatever the reason, no deal was done or even proposed (as far as I know). Maybe Rocket had better things to do than think about one-upping Zillow maybe Rocket had to stay alive to fight another day. And that same move would cause multiple crises in banking and decimate the mortgage business across the board. Of course what I didn’t count on - what nobody counted on - was that the Fed would go an insane rate hike spree that drove the housing market into territories never seen before. Rocket Mortgage seemed likely as they are a very tech-forward mortgage company, and Redfin is a major portal that is a tech-forward brokerage, and the value of Redfin had fallen below $550 million at that time. If Zillow were coming for mortgage, then mortgage could go after Zillow as a portal. Zillow intends to capture the mortgage lead at the time the buyer is dreaming about a home and visiting Zillow, and then convert them with Premier Agents. Zillow went into even more detail, but fundamentally, I thought this was Zillow declaring war against the entire mortgage industry. ” Enter Zillow Premier Agent network, and Zillow Home Loans. combined have about 1/3 of the market, there are very few national brands in mortgage, customer acquisition cost is extremely high and “ distribution requires brand power and a network of local real estate agents. The context of that announcement was Rich Barton saying that 87% of buyers use a mortgage, that the top 25 lenders in the U.S. I predicted this because Zillow was going so hard into home loans in Q3 of last year, and the monsters in mortgage weren’t going to just sit back and let Zillow eat their lunch. Rocket Mortgage Acquires Redfin - NOĪnother one I got completely wrong. Either way, Opendoor did not open any kind of a door to an MLS, never mind a national MLS. Or maybe they do, but they decided that the juice ain’t worth the squeeze when the squeeze involves getting blackballed by every single MLS in the country. We have seen zero evidence that Opendoor thinks of its 3P Marketplace as anything other than a specialized form of exclusive listings, and that Opendoor doesn’t much care if it’s on Tab 1 or Tab 2 of Zillow. But if you’re not a member of NAR, what do you care what NAR thinks is and is not an MLS? Relevant to this thinking is the fact that the term “MLS” is nowhere defined, other than in private industry groups’ own rules and policies. However… if the 3P Marketplace is itself an MLS, then Zillow can display those on the main tab because it is being sourced from an MLS. ![]() ![]() The Opendoor-Zillow partnership can’t get around the rules imposed on Zillow by the various MLSs it gets data from, and Zillow isn’t gonna screw around with that for Opendoor’s sake. Last year, when I made this prediction, I thought that Opendoor’s 3P Marketplace would transform into an actual MLS because it would be difficult for Opendoor Exclusives to be on the front page of Zillow: Opendoor Opens the Door to a New National MLS - NO But we haven’t looked at 2023 Predictions yet. I guess that’s not so bad all things considered. Lifetime Batting Average: 34.25 for 94 (.364) 2023 was a crazy momentous year, but I made seven predictions last year… always guaranteed wrong or your money back! (Does not apply to VIP subscriptions.) As always, in advance of my 2024 predictions, I like to grade my predictions from last year and see just how wrong I was with them.
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